Looking at the velocity potential-based MJO index, there is obvious eastward progression of the enhanced convection over the Maritime Continent in recent days, while objective wavenumber-frequency filtering of 200-hPa velocity potential places the enhanced MJO envelope near 150W. This disparity is likely due to the RMM index being biased towards RMM phases 4 and 5 (and away from the Western Hemisphere phases 8 and 1) due to the persistent convective dipole over the Maritime Continent and West Pacific from the building La Nina. The intraseasonal perspective from the original forecast remains on track, with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) likely being further east of where the RMM places it (barely over the West Pacific). Since the original outlook, a La Nina Advisory was issued, with a forecast 87% chance of La Nina conditions during boreal winter. Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Outlook Discussion ![]() ![]() Climate Prediction Center - Global Tropical Hazards Assessment Home
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